Interactive tool
Drag one dial and watch the typical miss shrink. The honest range shrinks with it and never collapses to a point: at every setting it stays wider than the miss. It is the fastest way to see why a tight, confident interval on thin data is a warning sign, not a selling point.
Try it yourself
There is one honest dial that matters: how well the model tracks reality. Drag it up and the typical error falls. What does not collapse is the width of the nominal 80% range. The sandbox sets that width from the size of its own errors, and even for a strong model it stays near plus or minus 20%. That width is the honest part; a tight, confident band is hiding the difficulty, not beating it.
Close on average, and still honest about the range it lands in.
Illustrative sandbox, not IRIS results.
A typical miss of 12% still leaves a fair 80% range of ±21%.
Illustrative sandbox data, not IRIS results.
Next step
The sandbox uses illustrative data. The Validation Sprint runs the same test on your estate: we hold back stores you already know, forecast them blind, and show you where the range held and where it did not.